CLARS researchers Find Hidden Risks in Great Lakes ‘Climate Haven’ Narrative

A new urban modeling study is offering critical insight for researchers in the CLARS Project, particularly those directly involved in both initiatives, as cities across the Great Lakes region prepare for the realities of climate migration.

The study, led by Thomas Estabrook and co-authored by Derek Van Berkel and Maria Carmen Lemos who are both CLARS team members, uses simulation modeling to examine how migration driven by sea level rise could shape urban growth in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Its findings suggest that migration alone may not dramatically expand urban boundaries, largely due to existing policies favoring denser development.

For CLARS researchers, this reinforces a central concern: the risks are not just about how many people move, but where and how cities grow. The study shows that in Grand Rapids, infill development policies, which are often seen as sustainable, can unintentionally increase exposure to flooding by concentrating growth in vulnerable areas.

This insight directly connects to CLARS work on participatory urban modeling and climate adaptation. Within the project, Dr. Van Berkel leads efforts to co-produce future land use scenarios with communities and policymakers, using tools designed to visualize how migration, inequality, and climate risks intersect. Meanwhile, Dr. Lemos’ expertise in environmental governance helps frame how institutions can respond to these overlapping pressures.

The overlap between the study and CLARS underscores a broader challenge for Great Lakes cities, often framed as future “climate havens.” While they may attract migrants from more vulnerable regions, the research suggests that without careful planning, even modest population increases could strain infrastructure and amplify existing environmental risks.

As climate pressures mount globally, both the study and CLARS researchers point to the same conclusion: anticipating migration is not enough and cities must ensure that the way they grow does not create new climate vulnerabilities.

Read more here: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0198971525001218